Money Continued the Westward Flight
August 31, 2008
The money is flowing out of Russia; the amount was at least $3 billion past week, showed the August 22 estimate of Russia’s foreign reserves that was released by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). The interbank rates peaked to the August 11 record yesterday on profit tax payments. The problem of liquidity is acute and the RF Finance Ministry and CBR will probably attempt to sort it out also by extending duration of the budget deposits in the banking system.
The RF foreign reserves (former foreign exchange and gold reserves) amounted to $581.5 billion as of August 22, having added no more than $0.4 billion from August 15 to set off the previous week’s decline of $16.4 billion. The capital outflow is the basic reason of this movement.
The week’s outflow could be from $3 billion to $4 billion, said Alexei Moiseev from Renaissance Capital. Some $8 billion to $20 billion flew out of the country August 8 to 15 on military clashes with Georgia.
Although political risks are the key factor fueling the outflow, there are a few other reasons that couldn’t be neglected. Quite a number of loans given to Russia’s companies mature in August; Rosneft alone paid $9 billion to creditors.
The liquidity of banking sector has suffered material decline. As of yesterday, the amount of correspondent accounts of banks and deposits with the CBR was no more than 659.5 billion ruble. Therefore, the interbank rates are high today. One-day MosPrime was 7.92 percent Thursday, although it usually fluctuates from 3 percent to 5 percent. The banks go to the CBR for liquidity at large. One-day turnover of REPO transactions totaled 168 billion ruble.
And last but not least, huge tax payments (due to high prices for crude oil) have collided with capital outflow. According to Renaissance Capital, the severance payments reached 270 billion ruble as of August 25, and from 210 billion ruble to 220 billion ruble was paid as the profit tax yesterday.
Source: Kommersant, August 2008
www.kommersant.com/p1017623/International_reserves/
Obama Joins Biden on Georgia Aid
August 20, 2008
Presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama joined Sen. Joe Biden in his call for reconstruction aid for the Republic of Georgia during a speech this morning.
Calling Biden “my friend,” Obama said he would join him in seeking $1 billion in assistance for the country invaded by Russia more than a week ago.
The Delaware Democrat, considered a potential running mate for Obama, returned from a fact-finding trip on Monday with strong words for Russia and a call for aid and an international peacekeeping force in Georgia’s conflicted regions.
Whether Obama’s speech at the VFW National Convention in Orlando this morning provides a clue in the veepstakes mystery is anyone’s guess. He and his staff have been silent on the subject, though Biden is widely reported to be on the short list.
The two also seem to be on the same page regarding Pakistan, whose president Pervez Musharraf stepped down this week. Obama used a phrase often used by Biden about the United States moving from a “Musharraf policy” to a “Pakistan policy.”
“I argued for years that we need to move from a ‘Musharraf policy’ to a ‘Pakistan policy,” Obama said. “We must move beyond an alliance built on mere convenience or a relationship with one man.”
Obama said this is why he co-sponsored a bill - a Biden measure - to triple non-military aid to the Pakistani people.
Source: Delaware Online, August 2008
www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080819/NEWS/80819029
Election Rules Set Ahead of Adjara Polls
August 1, 2008
A local parliament in Adjara Autonomous Republic passed amendments to the region’s election code laying out major electoral rules ahead of local elections planned in Adjara for this October.
Number of seats in the Supreme Council – the Adjara’s legislative body – was reduced from 30 to 18, according to the amendments passed with second and final third hearing on July 30.
Six out of 18 members will be elected through majoritarian contest in the Autonomous Republic’s single-mandate constituencies. A candidate receiving more than others, but not less than one-third of votes will be announced an outright winner of the majoritarian contest.
Remaining 12 seats will be contested through the party-list, proportional system.
Amendments have also reduced election threshold for party-list system from 7% to 5%.
The rule of composition of the local central election commission has also been changed.
The commission will be composed of 13 members; six seats will be allocated to those opposition parties, which are currently being financed from the state budget - Conservative Party; Republican Party; Labor Party; On Our Own; Georgian Troupe and Christian-Democrats. One seat will go to the ruling National Movement Party and remaining six to certified election officials, who in fact are pro-ruling party candidates.
Source: Civil.Ge Online Magazine, August 2008
www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=18870
UN Observers on Polling Day Abkhaz Shooting
July 29, 2008
A probe by UN observers into the May 21 shooting in the Abkhaz conflict zone casts doubt over the Georgian version of the incident.
Georgian TV stations reported on election day, May 21, that in the village of Khurcha on the Abkhaz administrative border the Abkhaz side blew up two buses ferrying ethnic Georgians from the Gali district of breakaway Abkhazia to Zugdidi. The passengers were on their way to vote, according to those reports. The Georgian Interior Ministry said that four women were injured in the attack. TV stations also aired footage of the incident.
A report by the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, on situation in Abkhazia, which covers the period between April and July, 2008, among other developments, also describes the Khurcha incident.
The incident is described by the report as “the most serious” that occurred in the Zugdidi area during the reporting period. The report is divided into three main sections describing situation in the Gali – on the Abkhaz side of the administrative border, Zugdidi – on the Georgian side of the administrative border and Kodori – three areas under the scope of monitoring of the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG).
The report says that heavy firing took place around a football field in Khurcha where a number of people, mainly from the Gali district, as the report puts it, “were requested to gather” to be transported by bus to Zugdidi to cast a ballot in the parliamentary elections.
The people assembled on the football field fled after an initial burst of small arms fire “by the would-be attackers” and the empty buses were then hit by rocket-propelled grenades.
An investigation by UNOMIG into this incident, according to the report, found that grenades were fired from “approximately 100 meters from the buses, on the Georgian-controlled side of the ceasefire line.”
“While no hard evidence has been found so far regarding the identity of the perpetrators, inconsistencies in the circumstances surrounding the incident, in particular the fact that the incident was filmed in such a way as to suggest that events were anticipated rather than simply recorded as they were happening, require UNOMIG to continue its investigation,” the report reads.
Three persons were brought to the hospital, one severely injured, according to the report.
An investigative documentary produced by the Tbilisi-based Reporter studio has claimed that the Khurcha incident was pre-arranged and has indicated that it was staged by the Georgian side. The documentary, in particular claims, based on examination of the entire TV footage (including those which were not aired by the television stations), that a cameraman, who recorded the moment when grenades hit the busses, was in fact expecting that to happen with the camera standing on a tripod.
The documentary also includes interviews with some local residents, who say that two unknown men came to the village earlier before the incident asking locals to follow them as “people were needed for a video shoot.”
The UN Secretary General’s report also notes that contrary to the Georgian side’s allegations, “the local population was not prevented from crossing the ceasefire line” on the election day. Officials in Tbilisi have claimed that authorities in the breakaway region were not allowing ethnic Georgian population of Gali district to arrive in Zugdidi for casting ballot.
When asked about the allegations that the incident was staged, Alexandre Lomaia, the secretary of the Georgian National Security Council, told the Rustavi 2 TV’s weekly program Triangle on July 16 that he was “surprised” by the fact in itself that the Georgian version of the incident was questioned.
“Could anyone be surprised that separatists were behind it [the attack]?” Lomaia said.
The UN Secretary General’s report also said that the overall situation in Abkhazia remained tense during the reporting period.
“One of the sources of this tension was the intensification of air activities over the zone of conflict,” it noted.
The Abkhaz side has claimed that it shot down seven Georgian unmanned reconnaissance drones over Abkhazia between March 18 and May 12. After initial denial the Georgian side has confirmed that three of its drones were shot down. UNOMIG probe into the April 20 downing of the drone said that it was shot down by the Russian fighter jet.
The UN Secretary General’s report says that UNOMIG has informed the Georgian side that flights by reconnaissance drones constituted a violation of the 1994 Moscow agreement on ceasefire and separation of forces.
“UNOMIG also considers actions, whether by air-to-air missile or ground-based air defence systems, taken against Georgian UAVs over the zone of conflict — albeit in a defensive posture — to be violations of the ceasefire regime, since the Moscow Agreement prohibits the introduction and operation of heavy weapons in the zone of conflict,” the UN Secretary General’s report reads.
Georgia said in late May that it had suspended flights of unmanned reconnaissance drones over Abkhazia after UN observers said they violated the 1994 Moscow agreement. The Georgian side, however, also said that Tbilisi would resume flights if there were a threat requiring them to do so.
Another reason of tensions, including in the Gali district, the report says, was “a general concern about an impending resumption of hostilities.”
In April and May the Abkhaz and Russian sides were accusing Tbilisi of military build-up along the administrative border, as well as in upper Kodori Gorge.
The UN Secretary General’s report, however, says that “there were no signs of substantial increases in the deployment of security forces in the zone of conflict.”
And in respect of upper Kodori Gorge, the report notes: “While the Abkhaz side and the CIS peacekeeping force expressed their concerns regarding an alleged introduction of additional Georgian personnel, including from the Ministry of Defence, and of heavy military equipment into the upper Kodori Valley, the Mission did not observe signs of a large-scale induction of security forces.”
It, however, also said that the UN observers were not allowed access to some areas of the Tbilisi-controlled territory in Abkhazia, in particular to the Kvabchara Valley. “UNOMIG requested the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs to ensure more transparency, especially in those areas that had been inaccessible, in order to enable the Mission to ascertain fully the facts on the ground,” the report reads.
Source: Civil.Ge Online Magazine, July 2008
www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=18857
Georgia: Opposition Announces Plans For “Alternative” Parliament
May 28, 2008
Georgia’s largest opposition parties are threatening to create an “alternative” parliament if preliminary results that show the governing United National Movement swept the polls in the May 21 parliamentary elections are not annulled. Although final results have not yet been announced, the Central Election Commission’s preliminary figures show the National Movement winning 120 out of 150 seats.
At a May 26 street protest in Tbilisi, opposition leaders announced that an “alternative” parliament would be used to give the opposition the voice they claim the “falsified” election results have denied them.
At a televised briefing with Polish President Lech Kaczynski to mark Georgia’s May 26 Independence Day, President Mikheil Saakashvili stated that “the minority should … respect the will of the majority. Dialogue is the only alternative. Nothing can threaten Georgia’s institutions.”
So far, however, the chances for such a dialogue appear close to nil. Georgia’s leading opposition coalition has already announced plans to boycott the parliament. Currently, all opposition parties that cleared the 5 percent threshold to take seats in the legislature — with the exception of the Christian Democratic Movement — have agreed to the boycott.
Election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe offered tepid praise for the May 21 vote. “These elections were not perfect, but since I was here in January for the presidential election, concrete and substantial progress has been made. Problems and much work remain,” said Joao Soares, head of an OSCE delegation to Georgia. While the OSCE assessment would seem to give the opposition grounds for discontent, the lack of evidence of grievous instances of vote-rigging undermines the opposition’s contention that the election results should be deemed illegitimate.
In discussing plans for the alternative parliament with EurasiaNet, Giorgi Khaindrava, a former State Minister for Conflict Resolution, described the body as “a representative chamber [with] people who were chosen by Georgian society, but [who] were not given the opportunity to work officially in parliament.”
While some local observers see the “alternative” assembly as a recipe for disorder, the opposition’s vision remains sketchy. Based on one description, the alternative parliament sounds more like an outdoor discussion forum. Conservative Party member Zviad Dzidziguri, a leader of an opposition coalition, says that opposition parliament candidates will simply hold deliberations in front of the actual parliament building while the National Movement-run official parliament convenes inside.
“This alternative parliament will be an organ where we can discuss those political and international issues that are troubling for Georgia,” Dzidziguri told EurasiaNet. “We have the right to discuss political questions. How we will discuss them is our right, our constitutional right. We are not going to bother anyone.”
He added that the idea is still under development.
But former Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili, leader of the opposition party Georgia’s Way, told EurasiaNet that the alternative parliament is secondary to the opposition’s real goal — stopping the newly elected parliament from convening.
“It is not an alternative parliament. It is the parliament of those leaders who have been elected from the opposition that do not want to collaborate with an authoritarian state,” Zourabichvili said.
The parliament is expected to convene no later than June 20, pending the release of final election results. One Tbilisi political scientist, however, questions whether the opposition — comprising 11 parties — has the leverage to stop the parliament from sitting. With an apparent constitutional two-thirds majority in the body, the National Movement has little reason to compromise with the opposition, argued Dr. Tina Gogheliani.
“At the moment, the president perhaps should [consider] a compromise, but there is no sign of compromise. There is deadlock,” Gogheliani said.
The idea of an alternative parliament, she added, is unlikely to carry any real weight. “It [the alternative parliament] will be a kind of alternative, but everyone knows it will not be a functional one,” Gogheliani said.
Whether or not the Christian Democratic Movement decides to join the parliamentary boycott could have a significant impact of the opposition coalition’s political strategy. The Christian Democrats won over 8 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results, and has benefited from a rising tide of popular interest in issues related to the Georgian Orthodox Church.
The Christian Democrats have indicated that they will decide on the boycott question within a few days. Party leader Giorgi Targamadze is already on record, however, as saying that it will not join a single-party parliament. Gogheliani said that if the Christian Democrats do not join the boycott, Saakashvili’s National Movement would be able to present the parliament as bipartisan, and deflect the boycott’s political impact.
For now, the opposition appears to hope that street protests will place pressure on the government. The May 26 demonstration ran roughly in parallel with the official Independence Day military parade on Rustaveli Avenue, Tbilisi’s main street. The several-thousand strong opposition march, though, reached parliament roughly half an hour after the military parade finished and the official guests had cleared the stage in front of the building.
Helmeted Special Forces police, equipped with truncheons and shields, had been mobilized inside parliament, and exchanged insults with protestors through iron gates. Opposition leaders, alternatively pacifying demonstrators and making demands of the Special Forces, claimed that the units had denied them entry into the building.
One potential clash, however, was narrowly missed when marching protestors en route to parliament came up against metal barricades and two buses stretched across a street to block their way.
Yelling vociferously, younger demonstrators tossed the barricades aside and began an assault on one of the buses, when police finally allowed the vehicle to be driven from the scene. A police tank headed toward the site that was seen by a EurasiaNet reporter also reversed direction and departed.
On May 27, the opposition resumed street protests with a demonstration in front of the headquarters of Georgian Public Broadcasting to complain about official media coverage of the opposition demonstration the previous day. Opposition leaders accused state television of coverage biased in favor of the Saakashvili administration.
Station director Levan Kubaneishvili vigorously defended Public Television’s coverage, noting that the opposition rally/march received 39 minutes of news coverage. “There are a lot of other activities that need to be shown on television,” he said.
Political scientist Gogheliani questioned the effectiveness of the opposition’s campaign against public television. “They [the opposition] need to elaborate [a] much wiser strategy,” she said. “[The opposition] needs to be more pragmatic and less emotional.”
Editor’s Note: Molly Corso is a freelance reporter based in Tbilisi. Sophia Mizante is a freelance photographer also based in Tbilisi. With reporting by EurasiaNet Caucasus News Editor Elizabeth Owen in Tbilisi.
www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav052708.shtml
Source: Eurasianet.Org; May 2008
Relationship With Power To End In The Street
May 28, 2008
Saakashvili strenuously attempted to be liked by people all winter and spring. What has come out of that?
Elections to the Georgian parliament were featured with flow of information about attempts of falsification. Just before the eyes of a Novaya Gazeta correspondent the oppositional activists caught a man with a forged ID, in one of the central district of Tbilisi.
Things are even worse in the regions. By midday there had been about 40 scuffles reported to happen at the polling stations. Gerontiy Kazia, the active member and propagandist for the United Opposition, was shot on his way to the polling station in Zalendjikhsky district in the western Georgia.
The opposition members announced a boycott to the official exit poll and asked that the voters not answer its questions.
A day before the elections an acquaintance of mine, Valery by name, who is a political technologist, told me the last polls data for Tbilisi.
“The party in power titled “National Movement” is leading with 28.5%. The United Opposition has 15.2%. The other parties have 5% and less each” then Valery pauses for a moment and asks me: “And have I told you the main figure? There are a lot of those who conceals who they are going to vote for. That’s about 40% of the interrogated. Most likely these are votes for the opposition. So you shouldn’t believe any official polls”.
The situation was similar at the presidential election in January. Saakashvili was in the lead officially while Levan Gachechiladze, the oppositional candidate, was at the second place. However, the number of those concealing their political preferences was less, something like 25%. People just refused to answer the questions by the interviewers carrying out the exit polls. And the tame political technologists interpreted that silence to the advantage of Saakashvili announcing him to be the winner one hour after the election was over. Next day the foreign observers supported the technologists without waiting till the official results were published by the Central Elective Commission. They said those elections “was a great advance to democracy by Georgia”. Saakashvili began to get congratulations from the heads of states. The opposition got mad. It adduced the evidence of mass falsification and it attacked the Central Elective Commission office. The opposition was tried to calm down like a capricious infant. It was promised that the violations would be eliminated at the parliamentarian elections.
A delegation of OSCE observers arrived in Tbilisi, headed by Matthias Yorsch, who is disliked greatly in the country. But he is a great friend of Saakashvili’s. And Dietrich Boden, the only OSCE observer to have stated about falsification of the January election, did not come to Tbilisi. No one has been able to explain the reason for absence of the most honest OSCE observer. Other observers (and Matthias Yorsch personally) are accused openly by the opposition of taking money from Saakashvili and turning a blind eye to all the falsifications. Mathias Yorsch responded that “If someone do not believe OSCE observers, that’s their problem. Generally, distrustfulness is the major problem of the Georgian opposition”.
Mr. Yorsch did not answer my question. I wanted to know his opinion about the final report by OSCE on the Georgian election outcomes. The report was published two months ago. The main conclusion was that 33% of the votes were miscalculated as a result of full or partial falsifications made at the major part of the poll stations.
Opposition staffs
Rezo Shavishvili, the candidate from the united opposition, runs as single-seat candidate in one of the major Tbilisi districts, Saburtalo. His opponent is the former vice-mayor of Tbilisi Georgy Meladze, the candidate from party in power.
“I start this election with the figure of minus 15 thousand votes! Do you understand me?”
I do understand, as one of those 15,000 is sitting next to me. His name is Ghivi and he is an employee at a private security agency. He was given a forged ID with registration pointed in Saburtalo. And in reality he lives in another district. Ghivi and about 300 guards like him were given false documents and obliged to vote for Georgy Meladze. Otherwise, they would lose their jobs.
Ghivi did not want to vote as he was told to and decided to tell the truth. He knows badly the Saburtalo district and so he had difficulties finding the campaigning staff of Rezo Shashishvili.
“You wouldn’t be able even to come to the polling stations. You would just get lost” laughs Rezo.
“It is most likely that we get a lift in minibuses” answers Ghivi. “So what should I do?”
The question is difficult. Rezo suggests that Ghivi make a statement at an exposing press conference. He promises protection to Ghivi, up to taking him abroad. Alas! Ghivi believing Rezo absolutely (Rezo Shashishvili has impeccable political reputation), he has no wish to flee to abroad.
…Finally it was decided to catch the falsifiers in the act with the cameras of mobile phones.
Saakashvili’s Staff
Very expensive PR experts - Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research – have developed the campaign for the party in power, “National Movement”. This firm, and Stephen Grinberg in person, used to consult Baraka, Mandela, Blair. They worked in Venezuela against Chavez. They also worked in Ukraine, but not for long. They say Yushchenko could not afford the services by the firm for longer period. Rumors place insistently Stephen Grinberg in Pentagon and CIA. He consulted Saakashvili at the presidential elections. It was him to create the most successful slogan of Saakashvili’s presidential campaign – “Georgia without poverty”. However, it did not help Misha much and it was necessary to reinforce the slogans with usual falsification.
This time the message box for Georgian people, created by Mr. Grinberg and his PR experts, was “Less words, more deeds”. The top ten of the party in power was formed with minor officials and big businessmen.
For example, in the majoritarian district of Samgori the oppositionist Levan Gachechiladze had an opponent, the business lady Rusudan Kervalishvili, the head of a large building company “Center Point Group”, who is a member of the party in power. Samgori consists of slums inhabited by really poor people. Oddly, this is about the only district in Tbilisi where Saakshvili’s party won honestly. Gachechiladze ran exactly there to get an exampling victory. And he had miscalculated.
And Rusudan Kervalishvili only had promised to the poor to demolish their bad houses, and to provide them with new housing just for free. This is how Gachechiladze lost in Samgori.
One may wonder why the successful business went for politics spending its own money. In search for preferences? Well, probably business in Georgia is as dependent as in Russia. But it does not seem to be rich enough to fork out money on different political campaigns.
The businessmen themselves say they are twisted arms and this is why they have to go for politics.
The deeds
The second half of the ticket of party in power is composed of communal and housing service workers. These are minor officials who never ask sharp political questions and do not participate in political debates. They just learnt by heart the created by Grinberg slogan and they mumble “we have no time for talks as we have a lot to do”.
Koba Subeliani is the most striking example of a politician of this kind in the National Movement. The deputy mayor of Tbilisi responsible for housing and communal services, he is within five top Georgian politicians of today. His rating is even higher than that by Saakashvili. He looks like a walking theory of small useful deeds. Installing and dismantlement the New Year Tree in Tbilisi, gifting a bear cub to the local Zoo, and other useful deeds shown on the air, plus the folk humor and natural charisma of a svan peasant inherent to him has made him a genius pupil of Mr. Grinberg, though both of them do not even know that.
The oppositional political elite treat such characters with contempt.
Distant mode (thoughts, occasions, inside)
It’s not only the West but also Russia – that missed the snap presidential elections – that takes part in the battle for Georgian political future. Unfortunately, the methods by the West (diplomacy and technologies) are more effective than ours (tanks, conscripts and artillery).
With our demonstrative support of Abkhazians we met a demonstrative American response. Matthew Braiza, a high ranking diplomat, the curator by State Department for Caucasus, has made a series of tough anti-Russian statements after his first visit (which does not seem to be a failure) to Sukhumi. Our media did not even mention it despite the fact the matter is about our own national security. In various briefings Matthew Braiza called Russia to give up belligerent rhetoric and respond to the peaceful initiatives by Saakashvili, and withdraw the troops from Abkhazia.
And Saakashvili has used our own tanks perfectly. He stated that Russia wishing to restore the Soviet Union poses the biggest threat for the budding Georgian democracy. That’s not true, of course, as we failed to do it even with Byelorussia. But Saakashvili is raising tensions with the purpose of getting support from Europe and America to save the democracy in the form that he sees it must be in Georgia.
The cynics from well educated elite in Tbilisi say that Washington calculates the outcomes of possible local conflict. The war would ruin Georgia, get the whole Caucasus involved and make Russia weakened. And anyway Washington will get its own way soon or late. At the end of the day, it’s Washington that appoints and dismisses Georgian presidents. Don’t the pro-Kremlin experts say like that? It’s difficult to quarrel with this statement! It is known that Washington has been looking for replacement of Mikhail Saakashvili after 7 November. The rumors say the substitute has been found. Different people from different circles say it is Irakly Alasania, the Georgian representative in the UN. He is a polarity to Saakashvili, i.e. he is a diplomat and a democrat.
And do we calculate the consequences of the local conflict in Abkhazia? Even Saakashvili went for arithmetic and said to his people “We must save our resources, as one day of war would cost us $40 millions”.
Yesterday too early and today too late?
The rating by the party in power “National Movement” has gone up while that of the Georgian opposition has gone down, since January to May. That’s true. Foreign experts and journalists explain this trend with the lack of campaigning platform, i.e. promises made. Actually, the opposition gives promises too. They promise, for example, nationalization and reprivatization. And Saakashvili promises to give jobs to the entire population within 50 months. People like both kinds of promises. And some people gave up “the forest sold to Chinese, the port sold to Arabs, the land sold to Russians”. They just want to have a job and a salary.
At the meeting in support of the united opposition (with over 70,000 Tbilisi dwellers to come) a young woman with a face of a tired Italian and with three small daughters said angrily “the opposition turned out to be cowardly”.
In reality, the rating by opposition went down on the inauguration day. That day Gachechiladze gathered a 300,000- people crowd at the hippodrome and stated he would not lead people to the parliament building, as there had been agreement with Mikhail Saakashvili of not making up the mess.
Actually, that was rather wise and not cowardly political decision. The problem is that the Georgian electors do not think so.
The opposition is sure that tolerance by Saakashivili is forced towards the mass meetings and all those endless Marches of the Discordant. The mask of civility will be taken off right after the parliament elections. Rubber bullets, gas and water cannons will not be used only in case the opposition does not make an attack on the parliament. But no one doubts that if the party in power gains a victory in this election, the arrests will be as mass as the protest actions before the elections. The punitive machine has been intimidating people effectively so far. Last week it was recognized delicately even by OSCE.
One of prominent oppositionists told me “If the January 2008 repeats again, we shall not hold people back any more”. And I am nearly sure they would LEAD those people. Till Wednesday the parliamentary elections were their guarantee of safety. And yesterday it’s the crowd that became such a guarantee.
en.novayagazeta.ru/data/2008/36/04.html
Source: Novaya Gazeta; May 2008
Georgia’s Election: Misha’s Test
May 22, 2008
Mikheil Saakashvili’s party wins, but tensions with Russia persist
IF THE Russians wanted to help Georgia justify its putative NATO membership, strengthen its economy and capture international attention, they have achieved their goal admirably. A parliamentary election in a small Caucasus country of 4.5m people would not usually attract interest. But Russia’s sabre-rattling turned the poll on May 21st into a huge international event.
Russia has had a rancorous relationship with Georgia ever since the Soviet Union broke up. In recent years it has imposed a blockade, deported Georgians from Moscow and openly backed the breakaway enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, handing out Russian passports to their inhabitants. But after Kosovo’s declaration of independence in February and the NATO decision in April to hold out the prospect of Georgian membership next year, the Russians chose to up the stakes.
Last month President Vladimir Putin instructed the government he now heads as prime minister to establish official links with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Russians then accused the Georgians of preparing to invade Abkhazia, and moved in paratroops and artillery, claiming they were part of a peacekeeping operation. Georgia interpreted Russia’s actions as a provocative attempt at annexation.
Georgia Ruling Party Cements Power
May 22, 2008
MOSCOW — As vote counts were being tallied on Thursday, the ruling party in Georgia had a commanding lead in the Parliamentary elections held the previous day, cementing President Mikheil Saakashvili and his party’s place as the nation’s preeminent political force.
With two thirds of the polling precincts reporting, Mr. Saakashvili’s United National Movement party’s had more than 62 percent of the vote, Levan Tarkhnishvili, the head of the central election commission, said by telephone. The ruling party’s main opponent, the United Opposition bloc, had slightly more than 14 percent.
The opposition complained of irregularities in both the campaign and the vote, and vowed to challenge the results.
International election monitors agreed that the elections, while improved over past years, were still far from perfect. In a statement, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said that observers had heard “numerous allegations of intimidation, some of which could be verified.”
The group further noted that the “distinction between state activities and the government party’s campaign was often blurred,” and that there were “significant procedural shortcomings” with the counting and tabulation of the vote.
Observers Give Cautious Thumbs-up To Georgia’s Vote
May 22, 2008
International election watchdogs have given a tepid endorsement to Georgia’s May 21 parliamentary election, a poll in which President Mikheil Saakashvili’s governing United National Movement party looks set to secure a clear victory.
“Georgia is moving toward democracy, but it is hard to tell how far it has traveled so far,” said Bruce George, head of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Parliamentary Assembly’s delegation, at a May 22 presentation of international observers’ findings.
Early returns give a commanding lead to the National Movement. With 2,711 of 3,630 polling stations counted, the party has gained 58.77 percent of the proportional vote, while the splintered opposition trails far behind.
The United Opposition Movement headed by former presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze holds a distant second place, according to preliminary returns, with 18.18 percent of the proportional vote. The Christian Democrats, a newcomer party headed by well-known television journalist Giorgi Targamadze, have third place with 8.45 percent of the proportional vote. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Ruling party leads in Georgia
May 22, 2008
Georgia’s pro-presidential United National Movement is in a commanding lead after Wednesday’s parliamentary election. Exit polls show it has 63% of the vote after around 40% of ballots have been counted. Observers say they’ve found no major violations but Opposition leaders are vowing to protest against the result.
Georgia’s United Opposition, who got 15%, claims the vote was rigged. However, it gets better marks from international observers, who evaluate Georgia’s parliamentary poll as ‘a free election, with serious problems’, with the biggest of them being a lack of trust between the parties.
But inaccurate voter lists and other procedural violations were also mentioned by observers. The country’s central elections commission says violations are being investigated.
“We don’t trust the exit polls. We are asking all our supporters in the whole country, all opposition parties to boycott exit polls, the exit polls that are prepared by the people inside the government, inside the ruling party,” David Gamkrelidze from the United Opposition has said.
Despite their defiant tone, opposition leaders do not appear to have significant public backing. A rally on election night failed to attract large crowds.
But although the ruling party have a huge lead, there looks set to be more opposition representation in the new parliament. President Saakashvili said that was a positive sign.
However, most of the opposition representatives likely to be elected are categorically opposed to Saakashvili, making any sort of cooperation unlikely.
The final results will be made public on Friday.
Relatively incident-free voting
The Central Election Commission in Georgia’s capital was patrolled by units of riot police armed with water cannon in case of unrest.
About 55% of Georgians cast their ballots.
Levan Gachechiladze, the opposition leader, said he ‘voted for Georgia and for Georgia’s future’.
However, while the politicians were casting their votes, Georgian TV reported a shootout on the de facto border with Abkhazia. According to Georgian sources, minibuses carrying Georgian voters from the breakaway region to Georgia came under fire.
Voting elsewhere has been relatively incident-free, although scuffles have been reported at some polling stations.
Both the ruling party and the opposition are continuing to accuse each other of dirty tricks.
“The opposition always try to blame the government and say they are under pressure. But unfortunately we have different information. In some districts there were violations from opposition candidates to destroy the boxes for votes and other equipment,” Gigi Tsereteli, a ruling party candidate, said.
www.russiatoday.com/news/news/25066
Source: Russia Today; May 2008